In order not to go bankrupt we want to share our experience how to manage your finance while betting. The aim is to financial management is profit maximization, betting success due to well organized strategy.
Objectives:
- Providing the most effective use of financial resources
- Money turnover optimization
- Ensuring bankruptcy/waste minimization
Since sports betting have been developed, players worked out different strategies to raise their bankroll. Some of them have become really of use and have the call to present day. Others, in terms of impracticality were neglected.
The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. The martingale strategy has been applied to roulette as well, as the probability of hitting either red or black is close to 50%.
According to our opinion, the very strategy is not the best as the bankroll is ran irrationally. The bankruptcy risk is pretty high when you play understated odds.
D’Alamber’s method is that you determine the size of the stake: when you win, the next stake is higher by the determined sum, and when you lose, the stake is lower.
It’s a pretty nice strategy for those who don’t know when to stop. If you’re sure you’re playing with advantage, it’s not an optimal one.
Applying this method you have to make stakes so far until you receive a certain profit. You have to stake to the definite rules:
- You define the profit and make the first stake at the rate needed for you to benefit
- In case you lose, the stake is reckoned basing on the profit
- In case you win, the next stake is reckoned reasoning from the bigger income
The fundamental principal of this strategy is that you assign not more than 1% of your initial bankroll on one bet. As soon as you’ve earned 25% of the bankroll, you need to re-calculate your bet taking into account the same percent.
It comes out that this method brings you a 100% benefit depending on your initial bankroll.
We consider that all the above strategies may not give you a 100% confidence that your bank turns out to be empty. That’s why we advise you to use Kelly’s criteria which are the most secure and effective.
It is widely adopted as to be based on mathematical ground. This formula is used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. In most gambling scenarios the Kelly strategy will do better than any essentially different strategy in the long run.
NS = (BO*P – 1) / (BO - 1)
NS – next stake odds
BO – bookmaker’s odds
P – outcome probability
Example:
- Your bankroll: $1 000
- Bookmaker’s odds: 3
- Outcome probability: 0.4
- Next stake: (3 * 0.4 1) / (3 - 1)
- Your bet: 0.1 * $1 000 = $100
As we may see from the formula, our profit directly depends on our ability to estimate the outcome probability.
Some people think that profit is drawn owing to the advantage over the bookmaker but not the correctly chosen financial strategy. Financial management allows bookies to maximize their income, but the income itself comes from the bookie’s advantage over the player.
Some strategies to gain profit over the bookmaker:
Arbs: You have to bet on all possible outcomes with the odds bringing profit. As a rule, an arb consists of the odds from different bookies which help you to evaluate the outcome probability. Arb betting is considered to be the only method that brings a secure income.
Middles: Two opposite bets (e.g. TO and TU) with different total values, both of which may come beneficial depending on a certain outcome. At the same time there is a risk of losing the most part of money.
Value betting: You bet on overpriced odds as compared to the real outcome probability.
We arrived at a conclusion that exist lots of strategies that may be used for your money management but the most rational is the Kelly’s criteria. This method is guided in the direction of your financial prosperity.
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